This predictor assessment describes the relationship between having a criminal record and future employment and economic success. People with a criminal record are often excluded from job opportunities, and that exclusion can limit their options for economic success and their ability to determine their future.

Evidence of the Relationship between Predictor and Related Outcomes

• A 2010 report from the Pew Charitable Trusts found that, among men, having previously been incarcerated reduces hourly wages by 11 percent, annual employment by nine weeks, and annual earnings by 40 percent. As a result, formerly incarcerated men are less likely than nonincarcerated men to climb up the economic ladder.
• Other studies found that people without a criminal record are more likely to receive callbacks for job interviews than those with a criminal record (Leasure 2019). This negative effect of a criminal record is more pronounced for Black applicants than white applicants (Leasure and Andersen 2020; Pager 2003; Pager, Western, and Sugie 2009). Racial differences also exist in the effect of certificates of relief (a signaling device that a formerly incarcerated person has been “rehabilitated”), which are more effective for white job applicants than Black applicants.

How Investments Can Influence the Predictor at State or Local Levels

One approach that local communities can take to increase the employment opportunities of formerly incarcerated people is to pass “ban the box” laws, which prohibit employers from asking about criminal records. The evidence on the efficacy of such laws is mixed. Some research finds that the laws lead to more discrimination against men of color, whether or not they have a criminal record (Agan and Starr 2017; Doleac and Hansen 2020), while other research has found increases in public sector employment among people who were formerly incarcerated after ban the box laws were enacted (Craigie 2020). Alternatively, approaches to increasing local employment opportunities and the skills of the local workforce could benefit people with criminal records along with other members of the community.

References

The primary reference is marked with an asterisk.

Agan, Amanda, and Sonja Starr. 2017. “The Effect of Criminal Records on Access to Employment.” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings. 107 (5): 560–64.

Craigie, Terry-Ann. 2020. “Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Employment.” Economic Inquiry 58 (1): 425–45.

Doleac, Jennifer L., and Benjamin Hansen. 2020. “The Unintended Consequences of ‘Ban the Box’: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden.” Journal of Labor Economics 38 (2): 321–74.

Leasure, Peter. 2019. “Misdemeanor Records and Employment Outcomes: An Experimental Study.” Crime & Delinquency 65 (13): 1850–72.

Leasure, Peter, and Tia Stevens Andersen. 2020. “Race, Criminal Records, and Certificates of Relief: An Experimental Pilot Study.” Deviant Behavior 41 (9): 1065–83.

Pager, Devah. 2003. “The Mark of a Criminal Record.” American Journal of Sociology 108 (5): 937–75.

Pager, Devah, Bruce Western, and Naomi Sugie. 2009. “Sequencing Disadvantage: Barriers to Employment Facing Young Black and White Men with Criminal Records.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 623 (1): 195–213.

* Pew Charitable Trusts. 2010. Collateral Costs: Incarceration’s Effect on Economic Mobility. Washington, DC: Pew Charitable Trusts.