Predictor Effective public education

School quality influences children’s cognitive and social development. Lower-quality schools reduce children’s chances of attending and succeeding at postsecondary institutions, negatively affecting their potential for economic success in adulthood.

Evidence on the Relationship between Effective Public Education and Upward Mobility Outcomes

As of December 2021, researchers have documented the following connections between this predictor and upward mobility. Asterisk (*) indicates primary reference. 

  • School quality is an important predictor of student achievement. Smaller class sizes and higher teacher quality are key components of school quality and are associated with increases in student achievement, as measured by grades, test scores, and college attendance (Brühwiler and Blatchford 2011; Chetty et al. 2011; Jennings et al. 2015; Shin and Chung 2009; Whitehurst and Chingos 2011).
  • School infrastructure quality affects student outcomes; for example, schools with poor air filtration and those located near environmental hazards can create adverse health effects that lead to absenteeism and lower student achievement (Vazquez-Martinez, Hansen, and Quintero 2020).
  • School quality and spending (which improves quality) may translate into improved economic outcomes for students later in life. Higher-quality classroom experiences as early as kindergarten are linked to higher earnings at age 27 (Chetty et al. 2011).
  • The literature is mixed on whether school quality has a greater effect on low-income versus high-income students. One study looked at how the quality of the schools affect students’ likelihood of attending college and found a 12 percent greater effect on higher-income students than on lower-income students (Jennings et al. 2015). Nevertheless, studies assert that improving school quality, particularly in disadvantaged areas, can reduce income inequality (Chetty et al. 2011).
  • Attending high-quality, well-funded public school promotes educational attainment, graduation rates, student achievement, and higher wages later in life (Jackson, Johnson, and Persico 2016*; Johnson and Jackson 2019; Lafortune, Rothstein, and Schanzenbach 2018). Increasing per-pupil spending by 10 percent in all 12 school-age years reduces the annual incidence of poverty in adulthood for children from low-income families (Jackson, Johnson, and Persico 2016*).

Promising Local Policy Interventions 

Research from both Urban and others in the field suggests the following policies could help communities improve this predictor. These suggestions are not exhaustive, and communities should work with residents and leaders to identify solutions that are best suited to their local contexts.


Mobility Metric(s) Used to Measure This Predictor

Average annual improvement in English Language Arts

This metric captures the impact or quality of the schools children attend, using nationally standardized state assessments for English Language Arts from third through eighth grade.

View the full suite of metrics used to measure all the predictors in the Upward Mobility Framework.

Mobility Dimensions Engaged

  • Economic success