Predictor Just policing

Overly punitive policing, such as excessive traffic and other stops for suspected violations, is associated with increased anxiety and lower levels of upward mobility among victims of such policing. More equitable policing practices are an important contributor to people’s economic success and their sense of power and autonomy.

Evidence on the Relationship between Just Policing and Upward Mobility Outcomes

As of December 2021, researchers have documented the following connections between this predictor and upward mobility. Asterisk (*) indicates primary reference. 

  • Increased police visibility raises the fear of crime and lowers confidence that the police can control crime. Using data from two nationally representative crime surveys of adults matched with administrative data, researchers predict that if every officer in the country were to make one additional arrest, confidence in the police would decrease by 1.5 percent, controlling for other factors (Hauser and Kleck 2017). Such a decrease would lead to social disorganization, or the inability of a community to maintain social controls (Sampson 1990).
  • A survey of 1,261 young men (ages 18 to 26) in New York City, conducted between September 2012 and March 2013, found a relationship between police contact and trauma and anxiety symptoms (Geller et al. 2014).
  • An analysis of neighborhood-level stop-and-frisk data and individual-level health survey data in New York City found that the frequency of frisks and incidents involving the use of force at the neighborhood level are associated with higher levels of nonspecific psychological distress among men (Sewell, Jefferson, and Lee 2016).
  • Brayne (2014), building on existing qualitative research around surveillance and system avoidance, conducted a quantitative assessment and found that “individuals who have been stopped by police, arrested, convicted, or incarcerated are less likely to interact with surveilling institutions, including medical, financial, labor market, and educational institutions, than their counterparts who have not had criminal justice contact” (367).
  • Overly punitive policing leads to increased contact with the criminal legal system and higher arrest and incarceration rates. In addition to the negative consequences of having criminal legal system contact at the individual level, mass arrest and incarceration negatively affect families and communities. Gifford (2019) discusses how high incarceration rates in communities can lead to a loss of working-age adults, increased exposure to infectious diseases, and the shifting of public resources from health and social supports to the criminal legal system, all of which harm the health of communities.
  • Haldipur (2018)* provides firsthand accounts of the harms of aggressive policing in the South Bronx through ethnographic methods. The author concludes that aggressive policing had the effect of making community members feel that public spaces were off limits or inaccessible, thereby damaging community cohesion by splintering connections across community members.
  • Manduca and Sampson (2019), using data from the Opportunity Atlas in combination with the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods, find that “the predictive power of the incarceration rate is both highly statistically significant and quite large in magnitude: With higher levels of punitiveness comes lower income mobility, all else equal” (4).
  • People of color experience a disproportionately higher amount of police-initiated contact, compared with white people (Baumgartner, Epp, and Shoub 2018; Davis, Whyde, and Langton 2018; Fagan, Davies, and Carlis 2012; Fagan et al. 2009; Hetey et al. 2016). An analysis of data comprising almost 100 million traffic stops across the US found significant racial disparities in policing. The study used “veil of darkness” methodology to assess the possibility of racism in officers’ decisions to stop drivers and found that Black drivers were less likely to be stopped after sunset when one’s race is less identifiable, suggesting the presence of bias (Pierson et al. 2020). In addition to experiencing an increased level of police-initiated contact, people of color are more likely than white people to be searched, have property seized, and arrested. The same national study on traffic stops found that Black and Hispanic drivers were searched more often than white drivers and had disproportionately higher rates of contraband being found in searches (Pierson et al. 2020). Furthermore, police are more likely to use force and excessive force against people of color than against white people during police contacts (Goff et al. 2016). People of color also have a higher lifetime risk of being killed by police than do white people (Edwards, Lee, and Esposito 2019).

Promising Local Policy Interventions

Research from both Urban and others in the field suggests the following policies could help communities improve this predictor. These suggestions are not exhaustive, and communities should work with residents and leaders to identify solutions that are best suited to their local contexts.

 


Mobility Metric(s) Used to Measure This Predictor

Juvenile arrests per 100,000 juveniles

High number of arrests among young people, ages 10 to 17, is a strong indicator of elevated criminal legal system involvement and overpolicing. This metric includes arrests for any crime or status offense. 

View the full suite of metrics used to measure all the predictors in the Upward Mobility Framework.

Mobility Dimensions Engaged

  • Economic success
  • Power and autonomy
  • Dignity and belonging